On August 28th the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation held a hearing, “Weathering the Storm: The Need for a National Hurricane Initiative,” which reviewed the renewed need for hurricane research. Witnesses questioned why hurricanes - which have caused $180 billion in losses between 2002-2005 - received fewer research dollars than earthquakes, which have caused $14 billion in losses over the same time period.  The hearing also discussed the social and behavioral aspects of hurricanes and mitigation.

Senator Martinez (R-FL) acknowledged that there are people who believe that they do not need to evacuate because they have survived past hurricanes without evacuating.  Senator Hutchison (R-TX) reiterated that while people may know hurricanes’ potential destruction, they do not see the risk of direct harm to them and their own property.  “People don’t see their homes as vulnerable,” said Dr. Gordon Wells, program manager for the Center for Space Research at the University of Texas, adding to the problems in effective preparations.

Leslie Chapman-Henderson, president of the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, said that many people whose property was damaged by storms did not know better. The public expectation of the housing stock is not necessarily equal to the truth; many people do not know which building codes apply to their houses or whether they are living in flood zones.

The big question is how the ‘boy crying wolf’ phenomenon can be prevented in order to save billions of dollars in damages and thousands of lives. Unless the accuracy of meteorological predictions nears 100%, there will always be times storms veer off, which may make people skeptical about the need to evacuate.  A prime example is Hurricane Charley in 2004, where Tampa Bay, Florida residents were evacuated to the center of the state only to be hit with the eye of the storm, which had rapidly changed course.

As Dr. Richard Spinrad from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated, storm direction tracking has significantly improved in recent years, but storm intensity tracking remains a challenge. Both tracking components must be a focus in research in order to better educate the public and lead to more effective evacuations.

NOAA can have the most detailed hurricane maps and models in the world, but without proper communication with the public, the information is useless. As Ms. Chapman-Henderson pointed out, the information gaps must be bridged.

In addition to the need to take evacuation seriously, people must also mitigate against property damage. People must know the status and codes of their homes and property, and whether they can benefit from hardening or retrofitting structures. Future hurricanes will likely continue to cause preventable damage and the ‘boy who cried wolf’ phenomenon will likely continue. Through increased communication, and a new push for investment in hurricane research, however, damage and loss of life can be mitigated.

Shira Silver is an intern with the Disaster Accountability Project.  She is a student at the University of Maryland.